Hi everyone,
If a buyer sends you a headline saying mortgage rates went up, there's a useful follow-up question: Which days is that number measuring?
Last Thursday, Freddie Mac reported a higher weekly average. By Friday, Mortgage News Daily was reporting its lowest rates in two weeks. Both reports can be right.
The weekly headline missed the late-week improvement
Freddie Mac's October 8 average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.40%, up from 7.28%. Its survey covered October 1–7, before Thursday's improvement. That's a national weekly benchmark, not today's offer for your buyer.
What changed afterward? Mortgage News Daily reported that lenders lowered rates Thursday as bonds improved. Its analysis pointed partly to investors becoming more willing to buy bonds at the higher yields available, rather than one economic report suddenly changing everything.
Some lenders hadn't passed along all of Thursday's improvement before the day ended. That helped Friday's pricing move a little lower, too. Changes in the bond market and changes in a lender's offer don't always happen at exactly the same moment.
I'd explain it to a buyer this way:
“That headline looks backward at a weekly average. There was some improvement afterward, so let's check what it means for your loan before changing your plans.”
That doesn't mean rates will keep falling. It means an older average shouldn't make the decision for them. And I wouldn't compare Freddie Mac's number directly with a different daily index to calculate a buyer's savings.
“Back to normal” doesn't mean affordable for your client
Redfin published an analysis last week exploring when housing costs could return to their earlier relationship with incomes. One hypothetical scenario gets there in roughly five years if mortgage rates fall to 6%, home prices grow around 2.1% annually and incomes follow the study's assumed path. It's a scenario, not a prediction.
The useful part is the definition. Redfin compares mortgage payments with household incomes, using August 2018 as its baseline. In an expensive market, returning to that relationship can still leave a home out of reach for a typical household.
For a client asking whether to wait, I'd bring it back to their own numbers: the payment they can comfortably carry, cash left after closing and how long they expect to stay. A national timeline can't answer those questions for them.
REALTOR GROWTH STRATEGY
Give a good Reel another chance
Before starting your next Reel from scratch, look at one that already brought you strong views or new followers. Is the advice still useful and accurate? Keep the core hook or message, and record fresh B-roll—the footage playing behind your words.
Think a neighborhood walk, an exterior shot you have permission to use or a few clips of you preparing for a showing. You’re giving a useful idea a fresh presentation.
If you have the Trial option when posting, try the new version there. Instagram shows Trial Reels to non-followers first, which lets you test the idea with people who may not know you yet.
Here's today's checklist:
Pick one past Reel that stood out in your own results.
Update any dated advice, prices or market claims.
Pair its strongest message with new footage and a clear caption.
Post it as a trial if available, then review the views, comments and shares. Meta says those early metrics become available after about 24 hours.
If the Trial option isn't available, you can still use the refreshed idea as a regular Reel. It just won't be a non-followers-first test.
The first Reel's results give you a reason to revisit the idea, not a promise that it will perform the same way. Look for useful responses and relevant new connections alongside views.
3 things I'm watching this week
October 12–18; all times Eastern.
Wednesday, October 14, 8:30 a.m.: Are consumer prices cooling? September's CPI report will give us a fresh inflation reading to weigh against the late-week rate improvement.
Thursday, October 15, 8:30 a.m.: Are shoppers still spending? September's advance retail-sales report will help fill in the demand picture.
Thursday, October 15, 8:30 a.m.: What's happening to prices received by producers? September's PPI report adds another view of price pressure. It measures a different part of the economy from CPI.
Have a Reel you're thinking about trying again? Reply and send it my way—I'd love to see what worked for you.
Jessica Eiroa
Mortgage Loan Officer | NMLS #1380149
Five Star Mortgage | Company NMLS #1756744
702-285-0633
[email protected]
eiroahomeloans.com
Educational Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend. Mortgage rates, programs, terms and availability are subject to change and borrower qualification. This information is not intended as tax, legal or financial advice.
Five Star Mortgage
2629 W. Horizon Ridge Pkwy Suite 140
Henderson, NV 89052