Hi everyone,
Friday gave us a useful example of why I'd be careful telling a buyer that a jobs headline means their mortgage just got cheaper. Rates initially improved, then lenders raised them again as the day went on.
The helpful conversation isn't predicting the next move. It's making sure your client knows which numbers to use before making an offer.
What I'd tell a buyer about Friday's news
The September jobs report showed 29,000 jobs added and 4.2% unemployment. BLS described both as little changed. It was an initial payroll estimate, not a final verdict on where the economy is headed.
Mortgage News Daily reported that bonds improved at first, helping lenders offer slightly lower rates. Those gains didn't last. Its analysis pointed to details in the unemployment figures, a rebound in oil prices and changes in European bond markets as contributing influences.
Why can the offer change that quickly? Lenders price mortgages partly around investments backed by home loans. When those investments change in price, lenders can adjust what they offer borrowers. That's a different process from the Fed setting its short-term policy rate.
The rest of the economic picture wasn't uniformly weak, either. August consumer spending rose 0.6% after inflation, while the PCE measure of prices was 3.4% higher than a year earlier. Those figures came out Wednesday and describe an earlier month than the jobs report.
Here's how I'd put it to a buyer:
“The first reaction to the news didn't last. Before we use a payment number to shape your offer, let's have your lender confirm the current terms.”
Freddie Mac's October 1 weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.28%, up from 7.03%. But its survey covered September 24–30, before Friday's changes. It's a national benchmark, not the rate available to your buyer today.
A price reduction is a conversation starter
Realtor.com's September data showed 20.8% of listings had a price cut, up from a year earlier. That's about one in five listings in its dataset. It measures reductions in asking prices, not discounts from a home's independently established value.
For a buyer, I'd focus on where the asking price lands compared with recent similar sales and competing homes. For a seller, I'd use those same comparisons to discuss today's positioning rather than defend the original price.
A useful question for either conversation: “If this were the first price you saw, would it make sense?”
Realtor Growth Strategy
Give a new follower a reason to reply
Make welcoming every new follower part of your routine wherever messaging is available. Keep the first message about getting acquainted, not asking whether they're ready to buy or sell.
Here's a simple opener you can adapt:
“Hey [First Name]! Thanks for the follow 😊 Are you local to [CITY] or just here for the real estate content?”
Replace the brackets, make it sound like you, and send it individually. If they reply, respond to what they actually said. If they mention they're researching a move, you could ask which part they're trying to figure out first.
If they just enjoy the content, that's useful to know, too. You don't need to turn every reply into a qualification conversation.
You can also sign up for ManyChat and check whether its Follow to DM feature is available for your account. Eligible accounts can automate the welcome message. Access is still in beta and depends on Meta’s eligibility review—not simply reaching a particular follower count.
If you don’t have access yet, keep welcoming people manually. Even with automation, some greetings may not go out because of Meta’s delivery limits. Respect messaging restrictions, and let the person’s reply guide the conversation.
2 things I'm watching this week
October 5–11; times Eastern.
Wednesday, October 7, 2 p.m.: What was behind the Fed's September discussion? The meeting minutes may add context about inflation and employment. They're a record of the September 15–16 meeting, not a new rate decision.
Thursday, October 8: What does the next weekly mortgage average capture? Freddie Mac's survey covers October 1–7. Keep that window in mind when explaining the number to clients.
Jessica Eiroa
Mortgage Loan Officer | NMLS #1380149
Five Star Mortgage | Company NMLS #1756744
📞 702-285-0633
✉️ [email protected]
🌐 eiroahomeloans.com
Educational Disclaimer:
This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend. Mortgage rates, programs, terms and availability are subject to change and borrower qualification. This information is not intended as tax, legal or financial advice.
Five Star Mortgage
2629 W. Horizon Ridge Pkwy Suite 140
Henderson, NV 89052